{"case":{"id":"OS-0013","title":"An infrared excess that appeared in 2018","hook":"A K dwarf 250 parsecs away was a bare photosphere for four years. Then, between two NEOWISE visits in 2018, 1000 K dust appeared around it, and it is still there.","status":"anomaly","target":{"name":"Gaia DR3 5792808347020475136","ra":220.96627,"dec":-76.19612,"aliases":[],"gaia_source_id":5792808347020475136},"summary":"Gaia DR3 5792808347020475136, a K3 main-sequence star, was photospheric from 2010 to 2017. Between two NEOWISE visits in 2018 its W1 and W2 rose by 0.17 and 0.36 mag (33-38 sigma); the excess (16% and 38% of the star) has a ~1000 K colour temperature and persisted into 2024. Twenty-seven field stars stay flat, the WISE position does not move, and the star is not young. Its variability is catalogued in VarWISE (Paz et al. 2026) as a long-period variable; Oddsky's contribution is the interpretation. No optical dimming was seen in 2018. Refereed: about 93% astrophysical.","claims":[{"id":"C1","text":"Field test (IRSA Gator neowiser_p1bs_psd, all exposures within 300\" of the target; outside the tools): 27 AllWISE-matched field stars with pre-step W2 9.5-12.5 show median post-minus-pre change dW1 = +0.006 mag (robust sigma 0.005, none brighter by >0.1) and dW2 = +0.014 (robust sigma 0.005) across MJD 58260; per-visit field zero-points stay within +-0.02 mag in every visit. The target's -0.168 (W1) / -0.359 (W2) step is >30 sigma outside the field distribution. The 2018 step is not a local photometric, background, scan-pattern or calibration systematic.","tag":"computed","calls":["K13","K14"],"author":"claude-referee","at":"2026-10-27T18:05:48+00:00"},{"id":"C2","text":"Centroid and PSF-fit quality across the step (single exposures, Gaia DR3 position propagated with pm -22.1/-13.4 mas/yr; outside the tools): the mean WISE position moves by 0.004 +- 0.006\" (RA) and 0.012 +- 0.005\" (Dec) between 9 pre-step and 12 post-step visits; w1rchi2 3.65 -> 3.54, w2rchi2 1.33 -> 1.44; nb = 1, ph_qual AA, w1sat = w2sat = 0 in every visit. For a ~25% combined flux increase this places any contaminating source within ~0.2\" of the K dwarf.","tag":"computed","calls":["K12","K13"],"author":"claude-referee","at":"2026-10-27T18:05:48+00:00"},{"id":"C3","text":"No catalogued IR neighbour can be responsible: unWISE has a W1-only source 7.4\" away at 5% of the target's W1 flux (undetected in W2), CatWISE2020 a W1 14.7 source at 9.4\", AllWISE sources at 13.2\" (W1 13.2) and 16.2\" (W1 12.35), and a W1 8.75 star at 32\" that sets the 'h' halo flag. Each of those three AllWISE neighbours is itself flat across 2018 (dW2 +0.026, +0.027, +0.007 mag), and any of them brightening enough to add 39% of the target's W2 flux would drag the centroid by >2\".","tag":"computed","calls":["K12"],"author":"claude-referee","at":"2026-10-27T18:05:48+00:00"},{"id":"C4","text":"Pre-event photosphere: AllWISE 2010 single-exposure epochs (MJD 55257, 55438) give W1 11.18/11.20, W2 11.23/11.24, identical to the 2014-2017 NEOWISE baseline (11.188/11.259); AllWISE W1-W3 = 0.17 +- 0.10 and 2MASS Ks-W1 = 0.06 are photospheric for a K3 dwarf. The excess appeared between MJD 58178.5 and 58341.7 (2018 Feb 26 - Aug 8); the first post-step visit was the brightest in W2 (10.82), then a plateau at 10.86-10.94 through 2024.","tag":"computed","calls":["K11","K15","K16"],"author":"claude-referee","at":"2026-10-27T18:05:48+00:00"},{"id":"C5","text":"Energetics (blackbody, inferred): excess colour W1-W2 ~ 0.87 mag gives T ~ 1040-1050 K (K15, K16); for a blackbody this is L_IR/L* ~ 0.02, an emitting area ~8 times the stellar disk, and an equilibrium distance ~0.04 AU for L ~ 0.3 Lsun. Larger, cooler areas are possible for small superheated grains. A fractional luminosity of ~2% sustained for 6 years is extreme-debris-disk territory (ID8, ASASSN-21qj, BD+20 307 range).","tag":"inferred","calls":["K15","K16"],"author":"claude-referee","at":"2026-10-27T18:05:48+00:00"},{"id":"C6","text":"Not a pre-main-sequence or obviously young star: with GSP-Phot A_G = 0.24 and E(BP-RP) = 0.13, the star sits at M_G0 ~ 6.31, (BP-RP)0 ~ 1.17, on the K3V main sequence (no PMS overluminosity), with logg 4.58. Heliocentric UVW = (-24.1, -18.4, -2.7) km/s (RV -0.47 +- 1.9 km/s, 17 transits) differs from Chamaeleon I/II, eps Cha and LCC (U ~ -8 to -11, W ~ -6 to -10 km/s) by >12 km/s. It is 6-12 deg from the Chamaeleon clouds on the sky, but at 247 pc it is not kinematically associated. An age of ~>100 Myr is likely but unproven; lithium is needed.","tag":"computed","calls":["K10"],"author":"claude-referee","at":"2026-10-27T18:05:48+00:00"},{"id":"C7","text":"TESS is weaker than the case implies: sectors S100 and S101 contain orbit-length ramps of 0.2-0.4 mag and a flat +0.6 mag offset lasting 5 days (MJD 61107-61111), which are pipeline/scattered-light systematics, so dips there are uninterpretable. Per-sector Lomb-Scargle peaks wander from 6.6 to 20 d at low power, so the '~11 d' rotation period is not established. The other sectors (2019-2025) show no dips beyond ~5% at 30-min noise of 1.6% (K18, K19). There is no optical photometry of any kind across the 2018 onset.","tag":"computed","calls":["K18","K19","K17"],"author":"claude-referee","at":"2026-10-27T18:05:48+00:00"},{"id":"C8","text":"Optical across the onset (outside the tools; ASAS-SN V and SkyMapper DR4 via the sub-agent): ASAS-SN V is 13.41 with robust scatter 0.036 over 2014-2018, and flat from MJD 58160 to 58378 apart from a gap at 58243-58300. A ~0.1-mag bright excursion at 58300-58306 also appears in an ASAS-SN comparison star and is likely systematic. SkyMapper on 2018-04-24 (MJD 58232, inside the 58178-58341 onset window) gives u 16.52, v 16.19, g 14.12, r 13.55, matching 2014 to 0.03 mag. There is no optical dip or flash beyond ~0.1-0.15 mag in ASAS-SN (diluted by ~1.6x through blending with the 16\" neighbour and HD 128641), which argues against a bright engulfment- or merger-type optical outburst unless it fell in the May-June 2018 gap.","tag":"observed","calls":["K10"],"author":"claude-referee","at":"2026-10-27T18:32:25+00:00"},{"id":"C9","text":"Prior catalogue status (via the sub-agent): VarWISE (Paz et al. 2026) already lists this source as a WISE variable with W1/W2 amplitudes 0.18/0.375, classified 'lpv' (long-period variable). The IR variability is therefore catalogued, but the classification is wrong (a K3V main-sequence dwarf is not an LPV) and the step-plus-reddening, IR-excess interpretation is new. SIMBAD and the literature contain nothing beyond Gaia/VSX [ROT]. Not a member of Chamaeleon I/II, eps Cha or LCC in the membership lists checked. The AllWISE 'hh00' cc_flags come from HD 128641 (V 9.66, F0V) at 32\", which is flat. The TIC contamination ratio is 3.78: the target supplies only ~21% of the TESS aperture flux, so TESS dip limits on the star are ~5x weaker than they 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Referee report: OS-0013 (Gaia DR3 5792808347020475136), \"the K dwarf that lit up in 2018\"\n\nReferee: claude-referee, 2026-10-27. Referee claims: C1\u2013C9. Call IDs refer to `ledger.jsonl`; my calls are K10\u2013K30. Checks marked \"outside the tools\" used IRSA Gator, Gaia TAP, VizieR, ASAS-SN Sky Patrol, SkyMapper DR4 or pandas directly.\n\n## Verdict\n\n**The infrared step survives. It is real, astrophysical, and on the K dwarf to within ~0.2\u2033.**\n\n- I could not attribute it to the instrument, the field, a neighbour, or a moving or new source.\n- What the step *is* remains open. Two-band photometry cannot distinguish newly made circumstellar dust from other dusty phenomena (for example ejecta after a planet engulfment).\n- The optical light curve is flat across the onset (ASAS-SN, SkyMapper), so there was no large dip and no large flash.\n\nConfidence that the excess is astrophysical and belongs to this star: ~93%.\n\n## Attacks and results\n\n1. **NEOWISE systematics** (C1; outside the tools).\n   - The star is at ecliptic latitude \u221256\u00b0, so it is not in the south-ecliptic-pole cap. Visits have 16\u201336 exposures, and the scan pattern did not change in 2018.\n   - I pulled every NEOWISE exposure within 300\u2033 of the star. Twenty-seven field stars with W2 9.5\u201312.5 changed by +0.006 (W1) and +0.014 (W2) mag across the step, with robust scatter 0.005. None brightened by more than 0.1 mag.\n   - Every visit's field zero-point is within \u00b10.02 mag.\n   - The target's \u22120.17 / \u22120.36 step is a >30\u03c3 outlier.\n   - Fainter field stars (W2 ~14.7) show only noise-level excursions.\n2. **Blends, moving and new sources** (C2, C3).\n   - Relative to the Gaia position propagated with proper motion (22 mas/yr, i.e. 0.2\u2033 over the decade, which is negligible), the WISE centroid moves by 0.013 \u00b1 0.008\u2033 across the step.\n   - rchi2 is unchanged, and nb = 1 throughout.\n   - Any contaminant must therefore be within ~0.2\u2033.\n   - The closest IR neighbours are:\n     - an unWISE W1-only source at 7.4\u2033 (5% of the W1 flux);\n     - a CatWISE W1 14.7 source at 9.4\u2033;\n     - AllWISE sources at 13\u2033 and 16\u2033;\n     - a W1 8.75 star at 32\u2033, which sets the halo flag both before and after the step.\n   - All of these are flat across 2018.\n   - An asteroid would affect one visit, not six years. A comet or transient within 0.2\u2033, steady for six years, is implausible.\n   - A background AGN or nuclear transient within 0.2\u2033 would have to rise from undetectable (W2 > 16) to W2 \u2248 12.3 and then hold steady for six years. Over 18 M stars a few chance AGN alignments within 0.2\u2033 are expected, but almost none would brighten by that factor of ~30 into a plateau.\n3. **Saturation and nonlinearity.** None. W1 ~11.0 and W2 ~10.9 are 3 mag fainter than saturation. w1sat = w2sat = 0 and ph_qual is AA in all visits.\n4. **Stellar explanations** (C5, C6).\n   - Dereddened, the star sits on the K3V main sequence (M_G0 \u2248 6.31, (BP\u2212RP)0 \u2248 1.17) with logg 4.58. It is not a pre-main-sequence star with a disk turning on.\n   - UVW = (\u221224, \u221218, \u22123) km/s is >12 km/s from Chamaeleon, \u03b5 Cha and LCC.\n   - Gaia RV from 17 transits is unremarkable, and RUWE is 1.02, so there is no evidence of a close massive companion.\n   - Not a Be/shell star (4770 K).\n   - Flaring M companion: excluded, because the excess has persisted for six years.\n   - A K-dwarf photosphere cannot brighten by 17% at 3.4 \u00b5m.\n   - Photospheric before the step: AllWISE 2010 matches 2014\u201317, W1\u2212W3 = 0.17 \u00b1 0.10, and Ks\u2212W1 = 0.06 (C4).\n5. **Excess properties** (C4, C5; K15, K16).\n   - Onset between 2018 Feb 26 and Aug 8.\n   - The first visit after onset is the brightest. The excess then plateaus at T \u2248 1040\u20131050 K through 2024.\n   - Blackbody L_IR/L* \u2248 0.02 at ~0.04 AU. This is extreme for a main-sequence K dwarf, and keeping it up for six years at such small radii needs continuous replenishment.\n6. **Optical** (C7, C8).\n   - TESS:\n     - Sectors S100\u2013S101 are dominated by systematics: ramps and a 0.6-mag five-day offset.\n     - The \"~11 d\" period is not robust (per-sector peaks at 6.6\u201320 d).\n     - The TIC contamination ratio is 3.78. The star supplies only ~21% of the aperture flux, so the \"no dips >5%\" limit is only ~25% on the star itself.\n   - ASAS-SN V:\n     - Flat at 13.41 (robust scatter 0.036) through 2014\u20132018, including Feb\u2013Apr and Jul\u2013Sep 2018.\n     - There is a gap in May\u2013June 2018.\n     - The photometry is diluted by about 1.6\u00d7 by the 16\u2033 neighbour and by HD 128641 (V 9.66, F0V) at 32\u2033.\n   - SkyMapper on 2018-04-24, inside the onset window: u/v/g/r match 2014 to 0.03 mag.\n7. **Novelty** (C9).\n   - VarWISE (Paz et al. 2026) already lists the WISE variability: W1/W2 amplitudes 0.18/0.375, classified \"lpv\". That classification is wrong for a K3V dwarf.\n   - The detection of variability is therefore not new. The identification as a newly appeared ~1000 K excess on a main-sequence K dwarf is.\n   - Nothing else in SIMBAD, VSX (only Gaia [ROT]) or the literature.\n   - Not in the Chamaeleon, \u03b5 Cha or LCC membership lists.\n\n## Most plausible explanation\n\nHot circumstellar dust that appeared abruptly in 2018 and has been resupplied since. The most likely source is a collisional event close to the star (an extreme-debris-disk-like brightening, in the sense of ID8 or ASASSN-21qj), but on an apparently mature K dwarf.\n\n| Explanation | Probability |\n|---|---|\n| Collisional or debris dust | ~45% |\n| Dusty outflow from a star\u2013planet interaction or engulfment (cf. ZTF SLRN-2020; a flash would have to hide in the May\u2013June 2018 ASAS-SN gap) | ~8% |\n| Activity or event on an unresolved companion within 0.2\u2033 | ~10% |\n| Unrelated background object (AGN etc.) within 0.2\u2033 | ~3% |\n| Unexplained or instrumental | ~34% |\n\nThe instrumental share is low after the field test. Most of the residual is in \"unexplained\".\n\n## Wording requirements\n\n- Credit VarWISE (Paz et al. 2026) as the first catalogue of the variability, and note that it misclassifies the star as an LPV.\n- Say \"an infrared excess appeared\". Do not say \"the star lit up\": there is no evidence the photosphere changed.\n- Describe the temperature as \"a two-band colour temperature of ~1000 K\".\n- \"K dwarf, likely \u2273100 Myr\" needs lithium before any age claim.\n- Do not state an 11-d rotation period.\n- Do not write \"TESS rules out dips\". TESS is diluted ~5\u00d7 and starts in 2019.\n- No collision claim without spectra or mid-IR data.\n\n## Decisive follow-ups\n\n1. **Close the May\u2013June 2018 optical gap and get a de-blended light curve:**\n   - Gaia DR4 epoch photometry (to January 2020; due Dec 2026) resolves the 16\u2033 neighbour;\n   - ATLAS-South;\n   - ASAS-SN g after 2018 with difference imaging.\n\n   An optical flash means engulfment or merger; dips mean transiting dust; flat light means optically thin dust.\n2. **Spectra:**\n   - Li 6708 and H\u03b1/Ca II for age and activity;\n   - RV epochs for any companion;\n   - a near-IR spectrum (or SPHEREx 0.75\u20135 \u00b5m, now public) for the excess shape and CO/H\u2082O.\n3. **Mid-IR** (VISIR, or JWST MIRI): a 10-\u00b5m silicate feature would show small, freshly made grains; the 10\u201325 \u00b5m SED gives the dust mass.\n4. **Optical monitoring** for ASASSN-21qj-like dips. Prediction: if the dust is orbiting at ~0.04 AU, any transiting structure recurs on ~3\u201310 d.\n"}]}